Baseball Lines
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In order to score a profit on a complex game like baseball, you need to be in tune with all of the ever-changing stats and trends. By logging on daily, you will have access to information that all of the best handicappers use when handicapping a game.
Make us a regular visit during the baseball season and watch your winning percentage and bankroll take off.
News
MLB: Angels Having a Devil of a Time in Tampa
2008-08-20
For the last several months, the Los Angeles Angels have either been the best team in the American League or the best team in baseball. As of last evening, they have lost both positions and if they expect to reclaim top spot, the Angels will have to do something they have been unable to do all season, win at Tampa Bay.
Having lost the first two games of the series already at Tropicana Field, the Angels are 0-5 at the Rays home park and have lost just their eighth series of the year. Having dropped two of three in Cleveland in previous series, this is the first time since early June L.A. has lost back-to-back series and they have only been swept one other time all season, in Tampa Bay, May 9-11.
Though the Angels are in no danger of giving away their AL West lead, they would certainly like to post at least one victory in Tampa, as the way things are setting up, they might have to make this trip again in October when the pressure will really to be turned up.
After the Rays lost outfielder Carl Crawford and rookie of the year candidate Evan Longoria, the assumption was manager Joe Maddon’s club would finally come back to reality. Instead, Tampa Bay has swum away from all competitors, having won 16 of last 20 games and is 22-9 since the All-Star break, the best in the big leagues. The Halos may have the best road record in baseball at 39-25 (+15.4 units), however they have been no match for the Rays who have the highest marks for home teams at 47-17 (+25.1) and are the best wager in the game at +24.1 units.
Jered Weaver (10-9, 4.47, 1.312 WHIP) is given the assignment of derailing the Rays, as Los Angeles will be underdog for first time in the series. Sportsbook.com has the Angels as +110 money line dogs with total at 8.5. Possibly this role will help the Halos, who are 19-10 (+13.7 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher and 25-10 (+17.5 Units) on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. Weaver is 2-0 lifetime versus Tampa Bay with sterling 1.93 ERA.
These Rays have given L.A. a devil of a time and are more like sharks than former team nickname. Tampa Bay has destroyed clubs with solid pitching to the tune of 30-12, in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs a game. For a team that has never had prosperity and has never been a consistent favorite, Tampa Bay has taken to this role like a duck to water, with 27-9 record as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Matt Garza (10-7, 3.63, 1.211) will try to extend the Angels misery and is 6-2 at the Trop in 2008.
The total has real possibilities tonight, with Garza 13-3 UNDER at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last three seasons (Team's Record) and Weaver and L.A. 20-7 UNDER after a loss. Something will have to given on the ESPN2 contest which starts at 7:10 Eastern, as the Tampa Bay is 10-1 in home games after two straight wins by two runs or less this season and Los Angeles is 31-14 after two or more consecutive losses over the last two campaigns.
StatFox Power Line – Tampa Bay -126
MLB: Does money buy happiness in MLB?
2008-08-13
In no other professional sport is the difference between the have’s and the have not’s so magnified as it is in Major League Baseball. While revenue sharing plans have helped, in no way have they come close to evening the playing field. Still, in looking at the current standings in baseball, does it really matter? Should the bettor be concerned as to a team’s payroll? The following study reveals some interesting numbers as to how a team’s payroll relates to its success both on the field and at the betting window.
In conducting this study, I simply took a list of the current team payrolls in Major League Baseball and compared the rankings to the team won-lost marks and betting returns. To simply, I grouped the teams into three tiers, the Top 10, the Middle 10, and the Bottom 10. It should be noted that all team records are as of entering play on Tuesday.
Here’s a look at the Top 10 teams in terms of 2008 payroll.
Tier 1 Payroll Teams
Rank, Team, Payroll, W-L (%), ML Units
1. NY Yankees: $209,081,579, 63-56 (52.9%), -11.8 Units
2. Detroit: $138,685,197, 58-60 (49.2%), -12.6 Units
3. NY Mets: $138,293,378, 62-56 (52.5%), -7.7 Units
4. Boston: $133,440,037, 68-51 (57.1%), 5.6 Units
5. Chi White Sox: $121,152,667, 65-52 (55.6%), 9.6 Units
6. LA Angels: $119,216,333, 74-43 (63.2%), 23.8 Units
7. Chicago Cubs: $118,595,833, 71-47 (60.2%), 12 Units
8. LA Dodgers: $118,536,038, 59-59 (50.0%), -8.5 Units
9. Seattle: $117,993,982, 45-73 (38.1%), -29 Units
10. Atlanta: $102,424,018, 55-63 (46.6%), -16.2 Units
Total: 620-560 (52.5%), -34.8 Units
Tier 1 Team Summary: To no one’s surprise, the Yankees are far ahead of the pack in payroll at over $200M. Of course, their -11.8 units of loss for bettors this season are also 7th worst among the 30 clubs. Detroit is next highest in payroll, and 6th worst in betting return. As a whole, this collection of big market teams has combined to lose over 34 units of return for investors this season. Their 52.5% winning percentage ends up the highest of any of the three tiers, but the price tag attached certainly doesn’t justify it. Just on the surface, it seems that oddsmakers take payroll into serious consideration when building their lines. This group of clubs, other than Seattle and Atlanta, are often playing as overpriced favorites. Fading these teams consistently has produced a nice return.
Now, here are the Tier 2 teams with their respective payrolls, won-lost marks, and betting returns.
Tier 2 Payroll Teams
Rank, Team, Payroll, W-L (%), ML Units
11. St Louis: $100,624,450, 66-55 (54.5%), 12.6 Units
12. Toronto: $98,641,957, 60-59 (50.4%), -7.8 Units
13. Philadelphia: $98,269,881, 64-54 (54.2%), -2.5 Units
14. Houston: $88,930,415, 59-59 (50.0%), 6.8 Units
15. Milwaukee: $81,004,167, 68-51 (57.1%), 10.1 Units
16. Cleveland: $78,970,067, 53-64 (45.3%), -21.2 Units
17. San Francisco: $76,904,500, 50-67 (42.7%), -9.2 Units
18. Cincinnati: $74,277,695, 52-67 (43.7%), -19.7 Units
19. San Diego: $73,677,617, 46-72 (39.0%), -30 Units
20. Colorado: $68,655,500, 53-67 (44.2%), -19.8 Units
Total: 571-615 (48.1%), -80.7 Units
Tier 2 Team Summary: The Tier 2 teams are a mostly collection of the league’s most disappointing teams of 2008, Cleveland, San Diego, and Colorado most notably. Miwaukee is the biggest shining star on this list, playing 17-games over .500 with the league’s 15th biggest payroll. Overall though, this tier of teams has proven to be the most futile when it comes to producing at the betting window. Only the three teams from the N.L. Central Division, St. Louis, Houston, and Milwaukee have produced positive returns for their backers. It seems that “not going the extra mile” with these clubs’ rosters has taken its toll.
Finally, here are the Tier 3 clubs and their performance marks.
Tier 3 Payroll Teams
Rank, Team, Payroll, W-L (%), ML Units
21. Texas: $68,239,551, 61-58 (51.3%), 14.4 Units
22. Baltimore: $67,196,248, 56-61 (47.9%), 3 Units
23. Arizona: $66,202,713, 60-58 (50.8%), -9.8 Units
24. Minnesota: $62,182,767, 66-52 (55.9%), 17.8 Units
25. Kansas City: $58,245,500, 54-64 (45.8%), -0.9 Units
26. Washington: $54,961,000, 44-75 (37.0%), -18.7 Units
27. Pittsburgh: $49,365,283, 54-64 (45.8%), 1.8 Units
28. Oakland: $47,967,126, 54-63 (46.2%), -10.8 Units
29. Tampa Bay: $43,820,598, 71-46 (60.7%), 20.4 Units
30. Florida: $21,836,500, 62-57 (52.1%), 16.8 Units
Total: 582-598 (49.3%), +34 Units
Tier 3 Team Summary: With six teams producing positive returns at the betting window, and one other within -1 unit, the Tier 3 teams, or the lowest payroll group, have been the most rewarding thus far in 2008. In fact, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Florida, and Texas rank 1st through 4th on the list of MLB teams in betting return. These are clubs whose unproven players have truly come up big in ’08, and consequently, they currently find themselves in the thick of the pennant races. Again, with this group, it seems that oddsmakers have pre-adjusted their lines this season based upon the team’s payrolls. It’s refreshing however to see that not only are these clubs producing big dollars at the betting window (+34 units of return), a few of them are also potential playoff clubs currently leading their respective divisions.
I guess to answer the title question then, it seems there is only a marginal improvement in winning percentage for a larger payroll, while the majority of strong betting return comes from spotting those live underdogs with the diminutive bankrolls.
MLB: Obvious & Powerful System backs Brewers, Sabathia
2008-08-13
The Milwaukee Brewers will be in search of their eighth consecutive win Wednesday when they visit the San Diego Padres for Game 2 of their 3-game set. Milwaukee (-200) sends its new ace, C.C. Sabathia, to the hill and is backed by a powerful StatFox Super Situation that boasts a 60-7 won-lost mark. Here’s more on the potent system plus a preview of tonight’s contest.
The Brewers are on a mission to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982 and have shown it over the last seven contests as they have outscored their opponents, 42-11. The road has also become an advantage of late, as Tuesday's 5-2 victory gave Milwaukee its 12th win in the last 15 games away from Miller Park. This is in stark contrast to recent seasons’ performances where the Brewers struggled horribly away from home.
As a result of their recent surge, the Brewers have been able to pull within 3-games of the Cubs for the N.L. Central Division lead. Perhaps more importantly, they have gained a 4-game separation from St. Louis for the wildcard lead.
C.C. Sabathia (12-8, 3.11 ERA) will get the call for the Brewers, looking to post a second consecutive shutout. The hefty lefthander is 6-0 with a 1.58 ERA in seven starts since moving over to the National League on July 7. Sabathia is already tied for the NL lead in complete games with four - matching teammate Ben Sheets.
The combination of the hefty chalk line on Milwaukee, San Diego’s recent hitting woes, and Sabathia’s dominance, lead to a StatFox system that seems obvious on the surface, but has been even more potent than the average bettor might realize. Here is it:
* Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SAN DIEGO) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. (60-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (89.6%, +44.5 units. Rating = 4*)
San Diego’s offensive struggles are well documented, and the main reason the club has fallen to 46-73 on the season. Discounting the past weekend series at stat-padding Colorado, the Padres have not exceeded the 5-run mark in any of their last 10 games. For the season at Petco Park, San Diego is batting just .234 while scoring just 3.5 runs per game. As a result, they are just 25-35 for a bankroll-crushing -17.2 units as hosts.
On the mound, the Padres will counter Sabathia with rookie Josh Banks (3-4, 3.77). The 26-year-old righthander has not factored in the decision in either of his last two outings despite allowing four earned runs in 12 combined frames.
Historically, Sabathia has throttled poor clubs, going 87-35 for +34.5 units throughout his career against teams outscored by 0.5 run or more per game. There are a couple of other significant trends indicating to fade San Diego as well:
* SAN DIEGO is 14-25 (-13.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.8, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)
* SAN DIEGO is 5-17 (-11.6 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.2, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Game time for this contest is 10:05 PM ET. StatFox Edge: Brewers -200.
MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends
2008-08-08
Two key series’ in each league will highlight the MLB schedule for the weekend as continue to push deeper into the pennant races. In the National League, division rivals will go head-to-head in both Chicago and New York, as the Cubs welcome St. Louis to town, and the Mets host a 3-game series against the Marlins. In the American League, it’s the battle of the Sox, Red and White, from the south side of the Chicago, along with a big series on the West Coast with the Angels welcoming the Yankees to L.A. It’s a big weekend of baseball, so here’s a closer look at all four of those key series’, along with a Top StatFox Power Trend for each of the 15 weekend matchups on the diamond.
On the north side of the Windy City, the N.L. Central Division leading Cubs will host rival St. Louis. The Cardinals sit 6-games back in the division race and 1-game out of the top wildcard spot in the National League. They are starting a critical 10-game road swing this weekend that also includes stops in Florida and Cincinnati. Fortunately for St. Louis, the road has been kind this year, as the Cards boast a healthy 31-25 record away, having scored 5.3 runs per game while batting .282. Still, the Cubs 43-16 record at Wrigley could trump any of those numbers.
At Shea, the Mets and Marlins will go at it for three key games over the weekend. With both teams back within 2-games of division leading Philadelphia, the series takes on significance. Neither team can afford to lose ground to the Phillies, who host the lowly Pirates this weekend. New York has taken five of the nine meetings between these teams this year and will be looking to improve its 34-21 record at home. The Mets are 11-2 in their last 13 games as hosts and haven’t lost a series in New York since June. Meanwhile, the next 10 games for the Marlins could make or break the ’08 season, as all 10 come against teams in the pennant race.
Switching focus to the junior circuit, on the south side of Chicago, the Red Sox will spend the weekend at U.S. Cellular Field taking on the leaders of the Central Division. Boston remains in striking distance of Tampa Bay in the East, but this figures to be a key 4-game series for the Red Sox, since they’ve struggled on the road against good teams this year. The White Sox meanwhile, are just a half-game up in the Central over Minnesota and have not fared well against Boston lately, losing six of the last seven at home.
Finally, in Los Angeles, the Yankees and Angels hook up for the second straight weekend, only this time on the other side of the country. In New York last weekend, the teams split four games. The Yankees face a big six-game road trip which will conclude in Minnesota in the early part of next week. At 5-1/2 games down to the Rays, anything shy of a 3-3 trip will be damaging to their playoff hopes. For the Angels, sitting comfortably 12 games ahead in the West, it’s almost time to start counting magic numbers.
Now, here’s a Top StatFox Power Trend for each of the 15 series’ on tap for the weekend.
ST LOUIS at CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 14-4 (+9.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better this season.
The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 6.2, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)
PITTSBURGH at PHILADELPHIA
PITTSBURGH is 12-45 (-26.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.9, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 2*)
HOUSTON at CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 19-33 (-18.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 2*)
FLORIDA at NY METS
FLORIDA is 19-12 (+14.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was FLORIDA 4.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)
WASHINGTON at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 20-3 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 6.1, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 2*)
SAN DIEGO at COLORADO
SAN DIEGO is 4-17 (-16.7 Units) against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 2.4, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 4*)
ATLANTA at ARIZONA
ATLANTA is 29-13 UNDER (+13.6 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 4.3, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*)
LA DODGERS at SAN FRANCISCO
LA DODGERS are 23-12 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)
TEXAS at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 73-33 (+31.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 5.7 or more runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.2, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at DETROIT
DETROIT is 17-25 (-13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 5.1, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at TORONTO
TORONTO is 13-1 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 6.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)
MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY
MINNESOTA is 21-7 (+17.3 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.6, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 4*)
BOSTON at CHI WHITE SOX
BOSTON is 11-24 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was BOSTON 4.1, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)
NY YANKEES at LA ANGELS
NY YANKEES are 11-0 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was NY YANKEES 6.5, OPPONENT 1.7 - (Rating = 4*)
TAMPA BAY at SEATTLE
TAMPA BAY is 5-17 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.4, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
