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MLB News
MLB National League Central Predictions
2010-06-25
The National League Central is usually a wild and unpredictable division. With no powerhouse favorite in the division this season, it looks to be even wilder than in past years. Despite the play the division may feature this season, here is the way I see things panning out, baseball betting needs to pay attention.
- The St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals have the best top of the rotation combo in the division hands down. They also feature the top free agent signing of the offseason and that Albert Pujols guy. With the emergence of Ryan Franklin as a more the solid option at the end of the game, look for the Cardinals to edge out the competition with their veteran leadership and strong starting pitching.
- The Cincinnati Reds: The Reds have surprised a great deal of people with their slight lead over the Cardinals so far this season. With a solid late inning combo of Author Rhodes and Francisco Cordero and a surprising amount of pop in the lineup, look for the Reds win a great deal more games than expected this season.
- The Milwaukee Brewers: Despite being ten games under .500 at the moment, the Brewers will win enough game to keep them in contention on offensive firepower alone. This, however, will not help their dismal starting pitching and uncertainty Trevor Hoffman has shown them this season. Look for the Brewers to have another season hovering around the .500 mark.
- The Chicago Cubs: The Cubs have a great deal of bloated contracts and old players that fill their roster. When Carlos Silva turns out to be your ace, you know you are in trouble. With little bang for their buck in the lineup and an out of whack starting rotation, look for Lou Piniella to blow more than a few gaskets this year.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates: The good news is that Pirates have a great shot at not finishing last in the division. The bad news is that they look to be making little to no progress as a franchise. Look for the Pirates futility to continue this season and for them to collect another top draft pick for 2011.
- The Houston Astros: The sheer awfulness of the Astros offense has been shocking to say the least this year. When Roy Oswalt wants to leave town, you know things have gotten out of hand. Look for the Astros the scrape the bottom of the division the entire season.
That is how I see the division shaping up. If the Cards can stay healthy, I really do not see anyone challenging them for the division crown, and those of you into baseball betting need to take notice. The NL Central is a wild one to say the least, though. The one thing we do know is that the NL Central is sure to be one of the most exciting divisions in baseball this year.
Are you ready for some baseball betting? At www.sportsbook.com all the game are available for you to choose.
MLB: Big-time run line system backs Giants in St. Louis
2009-07-01
Most baseball bettors use the K.I.S.S method when it comes to filling out their wagering tickets each day. They Keep It Simple by just playing sides and the occasional total. More savvy players mix it up though, throwing in some 5 inning bets or run line wagers when it makes sense. Perhaps this is because most bettors don’t have access to powerful information, like systems, to take advantage of those latter opportunities. Well, for Tuesday, a big-time Super Situation from FoxSheets backs San Francisco as a +1-1/2 run dog in St. Louis. Take a look.
The Giants shut out the Cardinals on Monday night behind Tim Lincecum. The final tally was a decisive 10-0 count, with San Francisco beating St. Louis 12-2 in the hit column as well. Now, because of that results, with the ageless Randy Johnson squaring off against Chris Carpenter, the Giants actually make for a strong underdog play on the run line at about +1-1/2 -125. Here is why, according to FoxSheets:
Play Against - Home favorites against a 1.5 run line (Money Line =-190 to +175) (ST LOUIS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games (78-21 since 1997.) (78.8%, +49.9 units. Rating=4*)
In essence, the system is indicating that too much of this line is reliant on another dominant performance by Carpenter. That is apparently a dangerous presumption to make after San Francisco broke out last night. What’s most interesting about that game is that the Giants are among baseball's least productive offensive clubs, a fact the Cardinals are having a hard time believing after they were hit hard in the series opener.
Of course, repeating the outbreak at the plate won't be nearly as easy. The Cardinals will have ace Carpenter on the mound. He is 5-2 with a stellar 1.78 ERA and 0.700 WHIP. He is also 3-0 against San Francisco in his career with an ERA of 3.00, including a win on May 30th on the road when he allowed just two runs in six innings.
San Francisco (41-34) came into St. Louis this week with the NL wild card lead, but a potent lineup hasn't been what's made it one of baseball's most surprising teams. Instead, it's been the major league-best 3.61 staff ERA that's propelled the Giants despite a less-than-stellar offense that scores just 4.1 runs per game.
They averaged 6.5 runs in their last two contests in Milwaukee over the weekend, though, and that offensive spark carried over on Monday. Edgar Renteria and Travis Ishikawa each drove in three runs to support reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum's two-hitter.
Johnson (7-5, 4.68), the 45-year-old left-hander, has done a particularly impressive job lately. He's 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last seven starts, and gave up one run and six hits over seven innings Wednesday in a 6-3 win at Oakland.
Johnson's two starts against St. Louis last season didn't go well. He went 0-1 with a 9.31 ERA, yielding five homers in 9 2-3 innings.
In other key Run Line Betting information available from FoxSheets on this game:
* SAN FRANCISCO is 12-2 against the run line (+10.1 Units) in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.4, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 1*)
However, there is one strong bit of info that would seem to conflict our top system a bit, focusing on the aspect of revenge. It is a team trend and reads as follows:
* ST LOUIS is 57-28 against the run line (+33.2 Units) revenging a shutout loss to opponent since 1997. The average score was ST LOUIS 5.1, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)
What wins out, system or trend? Find out tonight when the Cardinals host the Giants from baseball-friendly Busch Stadium at 8:15 PM ET.
MLB: Oswalt tries to continue dominance over Reds (7:10 PM ET, MLB TV)
2009-04-27
Though Roy Oswalt has yet to win a game this season, there is no better team for him and Houston to face at this moment than Cincinnati. To say Oswalt has had success against the Reds is like saying the Cleveland Cavaliers had a pretty good home record this season.
Oswalt (0-2, 4.68 ERA, 1.440 WHIP) is 23-1 over 29 career games, including 27 starts. He has a 2.39 career ERA versus the Reds. He last faced them on April 17, taking a no-decision after throwing six shutout innings. Overall, Houston (7-12, -5.1 Units) has won 22 of his 27 times he has taken the ball to begin a game against Cincinnati (10-8, +3.4) and is 11-1 in 16 road starts.
The Astros have not been playing good baseball, losing six of last 10, including dropping three of four against the Reds earlier this month. Houston despite a veteran lineup is not hitting, tied for last in baseball in runs scored at 3.5 per game. The Astros are 19-6 against the money line revenging two straight home losses vs opponent over the last three seasons.
Cincinnati has been a little more consistent and avoided being swept at home against Atlanta yesterday with 8-2 triumph. The Reds offense has been nominally better at 3.9 runs scored per game, though its batting average is quite a bit lower than Houston's (.233 vs .248). What has helped Cincinnati is better starting pitching, as in half their games the Reds have held opposition to three or less runs. The Cincy bullpen ERA is nothing special at 4.30, however when it has counted most, Francisco Cordero has led bullpen that is six for six in save opportunities.
The Reds are 31-50 (-26.8 Units) against the money line in home games after a win by six runs or more and give the ball to Johnny Cueto (1-1, 2.55, 1.188), who was brilliant in last outing. The 23-year old pitched seven scoreless innings against Chicago in 3-0 whitewashing for the win. Cueto allowed just four singles and didn't walk a batter, following instructions from pitching coach to stop nibbling and be aggressive.
Cueto has not enjoyed much success against Houston with 0-3 record and 6.75 ERA in five starts. He has been a victim and another reason why the Reds have lost 14 of 15 at home to Houston. Sportsbook.com has the Reds as -114 money line favorites with total Un8.5. If the line holds, this will mark the first time Oswalt has been underdog to Cincinnati, with the Astros having won 12 of his last 17 starts. Houston is 10-2 UNDER as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season.
The Reds have not excelled as favorites at -150 or less, with 2-5 mark and are 7-2 UNDER if Cueto starts after scoring five or more runs.
The Central Division action starts at 7:10 Eastern in both local markets and on MLB.TV, with Oswalt and 'Stros 2-6 on the road against teams with winning records.
StatFox Power Line - Houston -109
MLB: Angels Having a Devil of a Time in Tampa
2008-08-20
For the last several months, the Los Angeles Angels have either been the best team in the American League or the best team in baseball. As of last evening, they have lost both positions and if they expect to reclaim top spot, the Angels will have to do something they have been unable to do all season, win at Tampa Bay.
Having lost the first two games of the series already at Tropicana Field, the Angels are 0-5 at the Rays home park and have lost just their eighth series of the year. Having dropped two of three in Cleveland in previous series, this is the first time since early June L.A. has lost back-to-back series and they have only been swept one other time all season, in Tampa Bay, May 9-11.
Though the Angels are in no danger of giving away their AL West lead, they would certainly like to post at least one victory in Tampa, as the way things are setting up, they might have to make this trip again in October when the pressure will really to be turned up.
After the Rays lost outfielder Carl Crawford and rookie of the year candidate Evan Longoria, the assumption was manager Joe Maddon’s club would finally come back to reality. Instead, Tampa Bay has swum away from all competitors, having won 16 of last 20 games and is 22-9 since the All-Star break, the best in the big leagues. The Halos may have the best road record in baseball at 39-25 (+15.4 units), however they have been no match for the Rays who have the highest marks for home teams at 47-17 (+25.1) and are the best wager in the game at +24.1 units.
Jered Weaver (10-9, 4.47, 1.312 WHIP) is given the assignment of derailing the Rays, as Los Angeles will be underdog for first time in the series. Sportsbook.com has the Angels as +110 money line dogs with total at 8.5. Possibly this role will help the Halos, who are 19-10 (+13.7 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher and 25-10 (+17.5 Units) on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. Weaver is 2-0 lifetime versus Tampa Bay with sterling 1.93 ERA.
These Rays have given L.A. a devil of a time and are more like sharks than former team nickname. Tampa Bay has destroyed clubs with solid pitching to the tune of 30-12, in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs a game. For a team that has never had prosperity and has never been a consistent favorite, Tampa Bay has taken to this role like a duck to water, with 27-9 record as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Matt Garza (10-7, 3.63, 1.211) will try to extend the Angels misery and is 6-2 at the Trop in 2008.
The total has real possibilities tonight, with Garza 13-3 UNDER at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last three seasons (Team's Record) and Weaver and L.A. 20-7 UNDER after a loss. Something will have to given on the ESPN2 contest which starts at 7:10 Eastern, as the Tampa Bay is 10-1 in home games after two straight wins by two runs or less this season and Los Angeles is 31-14 after two or more consecutive losses over the last two campaigns.
StatFox Power Line – Tampa Bay -126
Will Four Aces be enough to win in MLB action?
2008-07-08
During the course of a long 162-game season, situations arise where some of the best pitchers in baseball all end up throwing on the same night for their respective clubs. Tonight is one of those nights, with four teams, three in the National League and one in the American League, all having their top pitcher taking the ball, in search of a win.
St. Louis at Philadelphia
The Phillies will turn to ace Cole Hamels (9-5, 3.22, 1.018 WHIP) to end three-game losing skid at home, with the Cardinals visiting. Hamels was probably mildly disappointed not to be named to the All-Star two years in a row, yet realizes his importance in leading Philadelphia out of its dry spell. Hamels was one out away from a complete game his last time out, when pulled after throwing 125 pitches at Atlanta. Hamels and the Phillies are 18-4 against the money line against NL Central opponents, including 4-0 versus St. Louis over the last three seasons. Sportsbook.com has instituted them as -210 home favorites, with total Un9. The Cardinals are one of the rare birds in baseball to have a winning road record at 24-19 (+9.8 units) and are 9-3 vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start this season.
Arizona at Washington
It’s been a rough go for Arizona, now tied for first place in the NL West with the L.A. Dodgers at 44-45, making a trip back east before the All-Star break. The Diamondbacks will look to square up record with ace Brandon Webb (12-4, 3.59, 1.170 WHIP) climbing the hill for Arizona. Even Webb has been caught up in the maelstrom of mediocrity for the D-Backs, giving up three or more runs in four of his last five starts. His ERA has taken a steady climb, after one point of having the best in the senior circuit. Webb the Snakes have excelled against weak hitting teams, posting a 15-2 record vs. NL clubs scoring 3.8 or less runs a game on the season like Washington. The Nationals have been dangerous this time of year, with a 20-10 mark in home games in July games over the last three seasons. Though Arizona is solid -155 visiting favorite, they are 5-13 against the money line in road games after a win this season.
San Francisco at N.Y. Mets
The Mets offense might finally be coming around, having pounded out 10 or more hits in seven of last nine games, they’ll face a stern test to their proficiency at Shea Stadium against one of the game’s new bright stars in SI cover boy Tim Lincecum (10-1, 2.49, 1.245 WHIP). At 5’11 and 170 pounds (maybe), Lincecum blows away hitters with old-school, over-the-top delivery, throwing in the upper 90’s, maximizing his abilities to generate speed and power. He’s averaging better than strikeout per inning (122 K’s vs 115.1 innings), while allowing just five long balls. He’s not lost since April 29 and “the Freak” and the Giants are 6-3 when he starts in traveling grays. Lincecum’s affect is shown on oddsmakers, who only have the Mets as -115 home favorites, despite having a much better club. New York is 21-8 at Shea when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two years; however Lincecum and San Fran are 11-3 in next outing off a loss.
Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees
Over in the Bronx, another New York squad will take a gander at the familiar tosses of Tampa Bay’s ace, Scott Kazmir (7-3, 2.62, 1.125 WHIP). The left-handed Kazmir, after toiling with calamitous clubs in Tampa, is now with the best team in baseball and is part of the reason the Rays are good to watch, not the only reason. Kazmir has been fighting location issues in last three starts, accounting for 5.74 ERA, but has performed well against teams like the Yankees with 9-2 mark when playing against a marginal winning team, in the 51 to 54 percent range. This is a big series for New York, trailing Tampa Bay by 8.5 games. This has to be culture shock for the Yanks who are more familiar with Rays team that is 3-24 in road games in July games since 2006. The Yankees will turn to Andy Pettitte as the old veteran, who is 23-5 vs. teams, whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Yankees Record) Tampa Bay is a +105 road underdog with total at 8.5 and is 27-12 when the total is 7 to 8.5 in 2008.
Stay up with all the baseball betting action at Sportsbook.com. Always wise to check the Betting Trends page along with having working knowledge of all the situations on the Teams Stats pages.